Albirex Niigata S 2–1 Balestier Khalsa

Albirex Niigata S

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Balestier Khalsa

4/6/2019

Premier League · Round 2Jurong East Stadium (Singapore)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Albirex Niigata S60%

×Draw19%

Balestier Khalsa21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex Niigata SExpected goals in this matchBalestier Khalsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.47

Albirex Niigata S

2.52

Balestier Khalsa

1.47

Albirex Niigata S creates 71% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 82 away

2.61

creates per match

1.88

1.06

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Albirex Niigata S

2.61

Balestier Khalsa

1.88

allows per match

Albirex Niigata S

1.06

Balestier Khalsa

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par

Balestier Khalsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata S ↓

Balestier Khalsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata S or draw

79%

Albirex Niigata S or Balestier Khalsa

81%

Draw or Balestier Khalsa

40%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+

39%

Balestier Khalsa wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals

92%

Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals

71%

Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals

45%

Balestier Khalsa 1+ goals

77%

Balestier Khalsa 2+ goals

43%

Balestier Khalsa 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)

74%

Balestier Khalsa (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata S at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.06 · 82 matches

Balestier Khalsa away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.44 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.61 + Balestier Khalsa defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.52

Balestier Khalsa attack 1.88 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Albirex Niigata S scores more

60%

level

19%

Balestier Khalsa scores more

21%

Albirex Niigata S at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Albirex Niigata S will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff