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AlbinoLeffe U19 vs Renate U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

AlbinoLeffe U19
AlbinoLeffe U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Renate U19
Renate U19
12/23/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 13Stadio Giacinto Facchetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

AlbinoLeffe U1943%
×Draw24%
Renate U1934%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AlbinoLeffe U19
1.68
Renate U19
1.46

AlbinoLeffe U19 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 45 away

creates per match

AlbinoLeffe U19
1.92
Renate U19
1.07

allows per match

AlbinoLeffe U19
1.85
Renate U19
1.44

finishing

AlbinoLeffe U19+0.00on par
Renate U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AlbinoLeffe U19 ↓

Renate U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

AlbinoLeffe U19 or draw
66%
AlbinoLeffe U19 or Renate U19
76%
Draw or Renate U19
57%

Winning margin

AlbinoLeffe U19 wins by 2+
22%
Renate U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AlbinoLeffe U19 1+ goals
81%
AlbinoLeffe U19 2+ goals
50%
AlbinoLeffe U19 3+ goals
24%
Renate U19 1+ goals
77%
Renate U19 2+ goals
43%
Renate U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AlbinoLeffe U19 (draw refunded)
56%
Renate U19 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AlbinoLeffe U19 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.85 · 60 matches

Renate U19 away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.44 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AlbinoLeffe U19 attack 1.92 + Renate U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.68

Renate U19 attack 1.07 + AlbinoLeffe U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AlbinoLeffe U19 scores more
43%
level
24%
Renate U19 scores more
34%

AlbinoLeffe U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AlbinoLeffe U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AlbinoLeffe U19 vs Renate U19

AlbinoLeffe U19 beat Renate U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Giacinto Facchetti in Cologno al Serio.