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Alberschwende vs Fussach — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Alberschwende
Alberschwende
CANC
00:00
Fussach
Fussach
3/28/2020Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 19Sportplatz Alberschwende

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Alberschwende50%
×Draw22%
Fussach28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alberschwende
1.99
Fussach
1.46

Alberschwende creates 36% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 47 away

creates per match

Alberschwende
1.85
Fussach
1.47

allows per match

Alberschwende
1.45
Fussach
2.13

finishing

Alberschwende+0.00on par
Fussach+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alberschwende ↓

Fussach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Alberschwende or draw
72%
Alberschwende or Fussach
78%
Draw or Fussach
50%

Winning margin

Alberschwende wins by 2+
29%
Fussach wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Alberschwende 1+ goals
86%
Alberschwende 2+ goals
59%
Alberschwende 3+ goals
32%
Fussach 1+ goals
77%
Fussach 2+ goals
43%
Fussach 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Alberschwende (draw refunded)
64%
Fussach (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alberschwende at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.45 · 71 matches

Fussach away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alberschwende attack 1.85 + Fussach defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.99

Fussach attack 1.47 + Alberschwende defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Alberschwende scores more
50%
level
22%
Fussach scores more
28%

Alberschwende at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Alberschwende will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alberschwende vs Fussach — Match Preview

Alberschwende face Fussach on March 28, 2020 in this Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Alberschwende host Fussach at Sportplatz Alberschwende.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.