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Albania W vs Wales W — World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe 2027

Albania W
Albania W
Preview
13:00
Wales W
Wales W
10/7/2026World Cup - Women - Qualification EuropeWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Semi-finals
Big match
49%
Wales W
model favours
29%22%49%

Wales W are unbeaten in 8 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Albania W29%
×Draw22%
Wales W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albania W
1.50
Wales W
2.00

Wales W creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Albania W
2.00
Wales W
1.33

allows per match

Albania W
2.67
Wales W
1.00

finishing

Albania W+0.00on par
Wales W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania W ↓

Wales W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Albania W or draw
51%
Albania W or Wales W
78%
Draw or Wales W
71%

Winning margin

Albania W wins by 2+
13%
Wales W wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Albania W 1+ goals
78%
Albania W 2+ goals
44%
Albania W 3+ goals
19%
Wales W 1+ goals
86%
Wales W 2+ goals
59%
Wales W 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Albania W (draw refunded)
37%
Wales W (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Wales W away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania W attack 2.00 + Wales W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Wales W attack 1.33 + Albania W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Albania W scores more
29%
level
22%
Wales W scores more
49%

Wales W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wales W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wales W have scored in 12 games running
  • 79% of Wales W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 71% of Wales W’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Albania W 3 vs Wales W 1
  • 29% of Wales W’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLLL
W
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Albania W face Wales W (World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe)

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe returns with Albania W hosting Wales W. Match starts October 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.