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Albania vs Belarus — UEFA Nations League 2018

Albania
Albania
Preview
18:45
Belarus
Belarus
9/26/2026UEFA Nations LeagueUEFA Nations League · 1
Big match
36%
Albania
model favours
36%29%36%

Top-of-the-table clash — Albania 4 vs Belarus 3

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Albania36%
×Draw29%
Belarus36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albania
1.14
Belarus
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Albania
1.11
Belarus
1.17

allows per match

Albania
1.11
Belarus
1.17

finishing

Albania+0.00on par
Belarus+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albania ↓

Belarus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Albania or draw
64%
Albania or Belarus
71%
Draw or Belarus
64%

Winning margin

Albania wins by 2+
15%
Belarus wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Albania 1+ goals
68%
Albania 2+ goals
32%
Albania 3+ goals
11%
Belarus 1+ goals
68%
Belarus 2+ goals
32%
Belarus 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Albania (draw refunded)
50%
Belarus (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albania at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Belarus away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albania attack 1.11 + Belarus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Belarus attack 1.17 + Albania defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Albania scores more
36%
level
29%
Belarus scores more
36%

Albania at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Albania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Albania
Balanced
Belarus
Direct / counter-attacking
47%Possession43%
82%Pass accuracyBiggest gap73%
10.1Shots10.1
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AlbaniaBelarus

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Albania
LLLWW
Belarus
DWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Albania vs Belarus — Match Preview

Albania face Belarus on September 26, 2026 in this UEFA Nations League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.