Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Albacete vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Albacete
Albacete
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mirandes
Mirandes
Ortuño 83'
4/18/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 35Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Albacete41%
×Draw26%
Mirandes33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete
1.42
Mirandes
1.23

Albacete creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Albacete
1.40
Mirandes
1.05

allows per match

Albacete
1.42
Mirandes
1.44

finishing

Albacete-0.26scores less
Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Albacete or draw
67%
Albacete or Mirandes
74%
Draw or Mirandes
59%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+
20%
Mirandes wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals
76%
Albacete 2+ goals
41%
Albacete 3+ goals
17%
Mirandes 1+ goals
71%
Mirandes 2+ goals
35%
Mirandes 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)
56%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.42 · 7 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.40 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Albacete defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Albacete scores more
41%
level
26%
Mirandes scores more
33%

Albacete at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Álvaro JiménezAlbaceteAlbacete · M
8.2

Match Events

57'
Victor Gómez
63'
D. Torres← E. İsrafilov
63'
Cedric Teguia← R. Zozulya
63'
Álex López← Antonio Caballero
71'
Cedric Teguia
73'
N. Djouahra← M. Ezzarfani
83'
Ortuño↳ Álvaro Jiménez
85'
Tana← Manu Fuster
86'
Mario Barco← Javi Muñoz
90+1'
I. Kecojević← Ortuño

Possession

49%Albacete

Shots

10Albacete

Pass accuracy

50%Albacete

Statistics

AlbaceteMirandes
Overview
49%Possession51%
10Total Shots6
8Corners2
10Fouls15
Shots
10Total Shots6
2On Target3
7Off Target2
1Blocked1
7Inside Box2
3Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
400Total Passes428
315Accurate Passes337
79%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Albacete vs Mirandes

Albacete beat Mirandes 1-0 in Segunda División on April 18, 2021.

Goals: Ortuño (83').

Mirandes controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.