Albacete 1–2 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Mirandes

Pedro Sánchez 4'

Sergio González 20'

Iñigo Vicente 15'

11/24/2019

Segunda División · Round 17Estadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Albacete41%

×Draw26%

Mirandes33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.23

Albacete

1.42

Mirandes

1.23

Albacete creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.40

creates per match

1.05

1.42

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Albacete

1.40

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Albacete

1.42

Mirandes

1.44

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Albacete-0.26scores less

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

67%

Albacete or Mirandes

74%

Draw or Mirandes

59%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

20%

Mirandes wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

76%

Albacete 2+ goals

41%

Albacete 3+ goals

17%

Mirandes 1+ goals

71%

Mirandes 2+ goals

35%

Mirandes 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

56%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.42 · 7 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.40 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Albacete defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Albacete scores more

41%

level

26%

Mirandes scores more

33%

Albacete at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Sergio González

Mirandes · D

7.5

Match Events

4'

Pedro Sánchez

15'

Iñigo Vicente

20'

Sergio González↳ Martín Merquelanz

21'

Leonardo Capezzi

37'

Néstor Susaeta

46'

Roberto Olabe← L. Capezzi

47'

53'

53'

62'

65'

Andrés Mohedano← Iñigo Vicente

80'

Álvaro Jiménez← Néstor Susaeta

83'

Kijera← Martín Merquelanz

87'

E. Ohemeng← Álvaro Rey

90'

Enric Franquesa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteMirandes

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots7

12Corners2

15Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots7

5On Target3

6Off Target1

2Blocked3

12Inside Box3

1Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

433Total Passes365

303Accurate Passes254

70%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0