Albacete 1–3 Levante: Result & Stats

Albacete

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Levante

M. Djetei 18'

Jorge de Frutos 56', 30'

M. Djetei 34' (OG)

6/3/2023

Segunda División · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsEstadio Carlos Belmonte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Albacete36%

×Draw30%

Levante34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlbaceteExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.06

Albacete

1.09

Levante

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 67 away

1.26

creates per match

1.03

1.09

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Albacete

1.26

Levante

1.03

allows per match

Albacete

1.09

Levante

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albacete+0.00on par

Levante+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Albacete or draw

66%

Albacete or Levante

70%

Draw or Levante

64%

Winning margin

Albacete wins by 2+

14%

Levante wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Albacete 1+ goals

66%

Albacete 2+ goals

30%

Albacete 3+ goals

10%

Levante 1+ goals

65%

Levante 2+ goals

29%

Levante 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Albacete (draw refunded)

51%

Levante (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.09 · 148 matches

Levante away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.93 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete attack 1.26 + Levante defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.09

Levante attack 1.03 + Albacete defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Albacete scores more

36%

level

30%

Levante scores more

34%

Albacete at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Albacete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Jorge de Frutos

Levante · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

Pepelu

18'

M. Djetei↳ Manu Fuster

30'

Jorge de Frutos

31'

Álex MuñozGoal confirmed

34'

M. DjeteiOwn goal

54'

Róber Pier

56'

Jorge de Frutos

57'

Higinio Marín← Maikel Mesa

63'

Julio Alonso← Antonio Cristian

65'

M. Saracchi← Brugui

78'

Juanma García← Dani Escriche

79'

Carlos Muñoz← Álvaro Rodríguez

80'

Cantero← Joni Montiel

80'

Soldado← M. Bouldini

81'

Álex Muñoz

86'

Roberto Soldado

87'

C. Musonda← Jorge de Frutos

90'

Higinio Marín

90'

Marc Pubill

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbaceteLevante

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots6

4Corners1

13Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots6

2On Target3

7Off Target2

2Blocked1

7Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

452Total Passes320

358Accurate Passes232

79%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards5

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Albacete vs Levante

Levante beat Albacete 3-1 in Segunda División on June 3, 2023.

Goals: M. Djetei (18', 34' o.g.), Jorge de Frutos (30', 56').

Albacete controlled possession (59%) and registered 11 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Belmonte in Albacete.

Albacete vs Levante — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Albacete vs Levante