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Albacete II vs Quintanar del Rey — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Albacete II
Albacete II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Quintanar del Rey
Quintanar del Rey
11/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 5Ciudad Deportiva Andrés Iniesta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Albacete II41%
×Draw28%
Quintanar del Rey32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albacete II
1.28
Quintanar del Rey
1.09

Albacete II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 94 away

creates per match

Albacete II
1.62
Quintanar del Rey
1.23

allows per match

Albacete II
0.95
Quintanar del Rey
0.93

finishing

Albacete II+0.00on par
Quintanar del Rey+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albacete II ↓

Quintanar del Rey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Albacete II or draw
68%
Albacete II or Quintanar del Rey
72%
Draw or Quintanar del Rey
59%

Winning margin

Albacete II wins by 2+
18%
Quintanar del Rey wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Albacete II 1+ goals
72%
Albacete II 2+ goals
37%
Albacete II 3+ goals
14%
Quintanar del Rey 1+ goals
66%
Quintanar del Rey 2+ goals
30%
Quintanar del Rey 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Albacete II (draw refunded)
56%
Quintanar del Rey (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albacete II at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.95 · 97 matches

Quintanar del Rey away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.93 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albacete II attack 1.62 + Quintanar del Rey defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.28

Quintanar del Rey attack 1.23 + Albacete II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Albacete II scores more
41%
level
28%
Quintanar del Rey scores more
32%

Albacete II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Albacete II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Albacete II 1–2 Quintanar del Rey

Quintanar del Rey beat Albacete II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Andrés Iniesta in Albacete.