Alaves 2–1 Levante: Result & Stats | La Liga

Alaves

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Levante

Joselu 90+1', 77' (pen)

Jorge de Frutos 13'

11/6/2021

La Liga · Round 13Estadio de Mendizorroza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Alaves45%

×Draw26%

Levante29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlavesExpected goals in this matchLevante

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.11

Alaves

1.45

Levante

1.11

Alaves creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

1.19

creates per match

1.18

1.05

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Alaves

1.19

Levante

1.18

allows per match

Alaves

1.05

Levante

1.71

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Alaves-0.04on par

Levante-0.07on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaves ↓

Levante →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Alaves or draw

71%

Alaves or Levante

74%

Draw or Levante

55%

Winning margin

Alaves wins by 2+

22%

Levante wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Alaves 1+ goals

77%

Alaves 2+ goals

42%

Alaves 3+ goals

18%

Levante 1+ goals

67%

Levante 2+ goals

30%

Levante 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Alaves (draw refunded)

61%

Levante (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaves at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.05 · 26 matches

Levante away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaves attack 1.19 + Levante defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.45

Levante attack 1.18 + Alaves defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Alaves scores more

45%

level

26%

Levante scores more

29%

Alaves at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Alaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Joselu

Alaves · F

8.3

Match Events

12'

Toni Moya

13'

Jorge de Frutos↳ M. Malsa

55'

Enric Franquesa

59'

Manu García← Toni Moya

59'

Edgar Méndez← F. Pellistri

64'

Miramón← Son

64'

Dani Gómez← Soldado

68'

J. Guidetti← Pere Pons

70'

John Guidetti

77'

JoseluPenalty

78'

Rober← Morales

78'

Cantero← Jorge de Frutos

86'

Pepelu← M. Malsa

89'

Iván Martín← Luis Rioja

90+5'

Víctor Laguardia

90+5'

Pepelu

90+1'

Dani Cárdenas

90+1'

Joselu↳ Martín Aguirregabiria

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlavesLevante

Overview

61%Possession39%

10Total Shots12

1Corners3

21Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target7

5Off Target4

2Blocked1

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

418Total Passes290

323Accurate Passes198

77%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

21Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Alaves vs Levante

Alaves beat Levante 2-1 in La Liga on November 6, 2021.

Goals: Jorge de Frutos (13'), Joselu (77' pen, 90+1').

Alaves controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Alaves vs Levante — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Alaves vs Levante