Alaves 0–2 Elche: Result & Stats | La Liga

Alaves

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Elche

Tete Morente 86'

Pere Milla 39'

10/18/2020

La Liga · Round 6Estadio de Mendizorroza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Alaves51%

×Draw26%

Elche23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlavesExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.89

Alaves

1.47

Elche

0.89

Alaves creates 65% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 27 away

1.19

creates per match

0.71

1.06

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Alaves

1.19

Elche

0.71

allows per match

Alaves

1.06

Elche

1.75

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Alaves-0.09on par

Elche+0.14scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaves ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alaves or draw

77%

Alaves or Elche

74%

Draw or Elche

49%

Winning margin

Alaves wins by 2+

25%

Elche wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Alaves 1+ goals

77%

Alaves 2+ goals

43%

Alaves 3+ goals

18%

Elche 1+ goals

59%

Elche 2+ goals

22%

Elche 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alaves (draw refunded)

69%

Elche (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaves at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 29 matches

Elche away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.75 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaves attack 1.19 + Elche defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.47

Elche attack 0.71 + Alaves defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alaves scores more

51%

level

26%

Elche scores more

23%

Alaves at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alaves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Pere Milla

Elche · F

7.9

Match Events

26'

Iván Marcone

30'

Florian Lejeune

33'

Dani Calvo

39'

Pere Milla↳ Tete Morente

46'

Laguardia← F. Lejeune

46'

E. Rigoni← J. Sánchez

47'

Jose Morente

61'

Josan

62'

Javi López← Adrián Marín

62'

Borja Sainz← Edgar Méndez

62'

66'

67'

78'

82'

Luis Rioja← Rodrigo Ely

83'

G. Carrillo← Josán Fernández

84'

Diego González← E. Rigoni

86'

Tete Morente↳ Fidel

90+1'

Luismi Sánchez← Tete Morente

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlavesElche

Overview

46%Possession54%

13Total Shots7

2Corners6

11Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots7

2On Target3

7Off Target1

4Blocked3

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

390Total Passes465

327Accurate Passes382

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

2Yellow Cards5

4Offsides4

Alaves 0 – 2 Elche

Elche beat Alaves 2-0 in La Liga on October 18, 2020.

Goals: Pere Milla (39'), Tete Morente (86').

Elche controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio de Mendizorroza in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Alaves vs Elche — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Alaves 0 – 2 Elche