Alashkert 1–1 Ararat-Armenia: Result & Stats

Alashkert

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ararat-Armenia

11/30/2023

Premier League · Round 18Stadion Nairi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Alashkert29%

×Draw27%

Ararat-Armenia44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlashkertExpected goals in this matchArarat-Armenia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.34

Alashkert

1.04

Ararat-Armenia

1.34

Ararat-Armenia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 107 away

1.27

creates per match

1.67

1.01

allows per match

0.80

creates per match

Alashkert

1.27

Ararat-Armenia

1.67

allows per match

Alashkert

1.01

Ararat-Armenia

0.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alashkert+0.00on par

Ararat-Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alashkert ↓

Ararat-Armenia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Alashkert or draw

56%

Alashkert or Ararat-Armenia

73%

Draw or Ararat-Armenia

71%

Winning margin

Alashkert wins by 2+

11%

Ararat-Armenia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Alashkert 1+ goals

65%

Alashkert 2+ goals

28%

Alashkert 3+ goals

9%

Ararat-Armenia 1+ goals

74%

Ararat-Armenia 2+ goals

39%

Ararat-Armenia 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Alashkert (draw refunded)

40%

Ararat-Armenia (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alashkert at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.01 · 106 matches

Ararat-Armenia away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alashkert attack 1.27 + Ararat-Armenia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.04

Ararat-Armenia attack 1.67 + Alashkert defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alashkert scores more

29%

level

27%

Ararat-Armenia scores more

44%

Ararat-Armenia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ararat-Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff