Alanyaspor 1–2 Sivasspor: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sivasspor

E. Akbaba 6'

K. Kesgin 90+2'

M. Yatabaré 32'

4/20/2022

Türkiye Kupası · Semi-finalsBahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Alanyaspor51%

×Draw21%

Sivasspor28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchSivasspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.58

Alanyaspor

2.17

Sivasspor

1.58

Alanyaspor creates 37% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 11 away

3.24

creates per match

2.27

0.90

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Alanyaspor

3.24

Sivasspor

2.27

allows per match

Alanyaspor

0.90

Sivasspor

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Sivasspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Sivasspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

72%

Alanyaspor or Sivasspor

79%

Draw or Sivasspor

49%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

30%

Sivasspor wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

89%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

64%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

36%

Sivasspor 1+ goals

79%

Sivasspor 2+ goals

47%

Sivasspor 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

64%

Sivasspor (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 3.24, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Sivasspor away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 3.24 + Sivasspor defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.17

Sivasspor attack 2.27 + Alanyaspor defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

51%

level

21%

Sivasspor scores more

28%

Alanyaspor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

24'

32'

54'

58'

59'

59'

59'

68'

68'

77'

E. Bekiroglu← U. Güneş

77'

O. Aydın← Wilson Eduardo

79'

K. Kesgin← E. Yeşilyurt

84'

E. Yardımcı← E. Karaca

86'

I. Cofie← F. Ulvestad

88'

Kerem Atakan Kesgin

90+3'

M. Konaté← M. Gradel

90+2'

K. Kesgin↳ F. Fajr

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AlanyasporSivasspor

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots4

6Corners7

14Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots4

6On Target2

5Off Target1

Passing

54%Possession46%

Discipline

14Fouls9

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2