Alanyaspor 1–1 Adana Demirspor: Result & Stats

Alanyaspor

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Adana Demirspor

João Novais 120+9' (pen)

E. Akbaba 120+7' (pen)

Candeias 120+3' (pen)

Wilson Eduardo 120+1' (pen), 22'

G. İnler 120+6' (pen)

B. Assombalonga 120+2' (pen)

E. Öztümer 38'

2/10/2022

Türkiye Kupası · Round of 16Bahçeşehir Okulları Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Alanyaspor80%

×Draw14%

Adana Demirspor7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlanyasporExpected goals in this matchAdana Demirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

0.61

Alanyaspor

2.62

Adana Demirspor

0.61

Alanyaspor creates 330% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

3.24

creates per match

0.33

0.90

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Alanyaspor

3.24

Adana Demirspor

0.33

allows per match

Alanyaspor

0.90

Adana Demirspor

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alanyaspor+0.00on par

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alanyaspor ↓

Adana Demirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Alanyaspor or draw

93%

Alanyaspor or Adana Demirspor

86%

Draw or Adana Demirspor

20%

Winning margin

Alanyaspor wins by 2+

58%

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Alanyaspor 1+ goals

93%

Alanyaspor 2+ goals

73%

Alanyaspor 3+ goals

48%

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

46%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

13%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Alanyaspor (draw refunded)

92%

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alanyaspor at home — creates 3.24, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alanyaspor attack 3.24 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.62

Adana Demirspor attack 0.33 + Alanyaspor defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Alanyaspor scores more

80%

level

14%

Adana Demirspor scores more

7%

Alanyaspor at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Alanyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Wilson Eduardo↳ C. Borja

38'

E. Öztümer↳ D. Akintola

45+1'

46'

62'

62'

62'

E. Akbaba← C. Awaziem

63'

G. İnler← B. Stambouli

64'

M. Vargas← Y. Akgün

74'

K. Kanak← A. Uludağ

74'

L. Castro← E. Öztümer

90+1'

Daniel Candeias

91'

E. Bekiroglu← O. Aydın

96'

103'

110'

113'

117'

120+1'

Wilson EduardoPenalty

120+2'

B. AssombalongaPenalty

120+3'

CandeiasPenalty

120+4'

S. GülerMissed penalty

120+5'

N. MilunovićMissed penalty

120+6'

G. İnlerPenalty

120+7'

E. AkbabaPenalty

120+8'

M. VargasMissed penalty

120+9'

João NovaisPenalty

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AlanyasporAdana

Overview

62%Possession38%

11Total Shots13

7Corners7

12Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots13

3On Target5

8Off Target8

Passing

62%Possession38%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides5