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Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Gold 2023

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Preview
16:00
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
11/14/2026Second League A - Fall Season GoldSecond League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 18Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak
42%
Rodina Moskva II
model favours
32%26%42%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz32%
×Draw26%
Rodina Moskva II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.22
Rodina Moskva II
1.45

Rodina Moskva II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33
Rodina Moskva II
1.11

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.78
Rodina Moskva II
1.11

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw
58%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Rodina Moskva II
74%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
68%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
13%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
70%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
34%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
12%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
77%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
42%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
43%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.11 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
32%
level
26%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
42%

Rodina Moskva II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Alaniya Vladikavkaz have scored in 9 games running
  • Alaniya Vladikavkaz and Rodina Moskva II have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Vladikavkaz
DDLLW
II
WLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alaniya Vladikavkaz face Rodina Moskva II (Second League A - Fall Season Gold)

Second League A - Fall Season Gold returns with Alaniya Vladikavkaz hosting Rodina Moskva II. Match starts November 14, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz host Rodina Moskva II at Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.