Alaniya Vladikavkaz vs Mashuk-KMV

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Preview

15:00

Mashuk-KMV

10/17/2026

Second League A - Fall Season Gold · Fall Season Gold - 14Respublikanskij Stadion Spartak

44%

Mashuk-KMV

model favours

31%26%44%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz31%

×Draw26%

Mashuk-KMV44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alaniya VladikavkazExpected goals in this matchMashuk-KMV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.48

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.20

Mashuk-KMV

1.48

Mashuk-KMV creates 23% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.33

creates per match

1.17

1.78

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.33

Mashuk-KMV

1.17

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz

1.78

Mashuk-KMV

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Mashuk-KMV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz ↓

Mashuk-KMV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or draw

56%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz or Mashuk-KMV

74%

Draw or Mashuk-KMV

69%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+

13%

Mashuk-KMV wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals

70%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals

34%

Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals

12%

Mashuk-KMV 1+ goals

77%

Mashuk-KMV 2+ goals

43%

Mashuk-KMV 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)

41%

Mashuk-KMV (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Mashuk-KMV away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Mashuk-KMV defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mashuk-KMV attack 1.17 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more

31%

level

26%

Mashuk-KMV scores more

44%

Mashuk-KMV at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mashuk-KMV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Alaniya Vladikavkaz have scored in 9 games running
Mashuk-KMV score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Vladikavkaz

DDLLW

Mashuk-KMV

LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff