Åland United W 2–0 KuPS W: Result & Stats

Åland United W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

KuPS W

10/15/2022

Kansallinen Liiga · Championship Round - 4Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Åland United W36%

×Draw22%

KuPS W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Åland United WExpected goals in this matchKuPS W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.91

Åland United W

1.77

KuPS W

1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 72 away

2.42

creates per match

2.56

1.26

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Åland United W

2.42

KuPS W

2.56

allows per match

Åland United W

1.26

KuPS W

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Åland United W+0.00on par

KuPS W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åland United W ↓

KuPS W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Åland United W or draw

58%

Åland United W or KuPS W

78%

Draw or KuPS W

64%

Winning margin

Åland United W wins by 2+

19%

KuPS W wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Åland United W 1+ goals

83%

Åland United W 2+ goals

53%

Åland United W 3+ goals

26%

KuPS W 1+ goals

85%

KuPS W 2+ goals

57%

KuPS W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Åland United W (draw refunded)

46%

KuPS W (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åland United W at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

KuPS W away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.13 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åland United W attack 2.42 + KuPS W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.77

KuPS W attack 2.56 + Åland United W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Åland United W scores more

36%

level

22%

KuPS W scores more

42%

KuPS W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KuPS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff