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Åland United W vs HJK W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

Åland United W
Åland United W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
HJK W
HJK W
6/5/2022Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Round 10Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Åland United W38%
×Draw23%
HJK W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åland United W
1.67
HJK W
1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 73 away

creates per match

Åland United W
2.42
HJK W
2.18

allows per match

Åland United W
1.26
HJK W
0.92

finishing

Åland United W+0.00on par
HJK W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åland United W ↓

HJK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Åland United W or draw
60%
Åland United W or HJK W
77%
Draw or HJK W
62%

Winning margin

Åland United W wins by 2+
19%
HJK W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Åland United W 1+ goals
81%
Åland United W 2+ goals
50%
Åland United W 3+ goals
23%
HJK W 1+ goals
82%
HJK W 2+ goals
51%
HJK W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Åland United W (draw refunded)
49%
HJK W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åland United W at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

HJK W away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.92 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åland United W attack 2.42 + HJK W defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.67

HJK W attack 2.18 + Åland United W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Åland United W scores more
38%
level
23%
HJK W scores more
40%

HJK W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "HJK W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Åland United W vs HJK W

Åland United W and HJK W drew 1-1 in Kansallinen Liiga on June 5, 2022.

The match was played at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs in Åland.