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Alamal Atbara vs Al Fallah — Sudani Premier League 2019

Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
FT
2 – 0
Al Fallah
Al Fallah
10/22/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 7Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Alamal Atbara48%
×Draw30%
Al Fallah22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alamal Atbara
1.22
Al Fallah
0.71

Alamal Atbara creates 72% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 40 away

creates per match

Alamal Atbara
1.08
Al Fallah
0.55

allows per match

Alamal Atbara
0.87
Al Fallah
1.35

finishing

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par
Al Fallah+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alamal Atbara ↓

Al Fallah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Alamal Atbara or draw
78%
Alamal Atbara or Al Fallah
70%
Draw or Al Fallah
52%

Winning margin

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
22%
Al Fallah wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
70%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
34%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
12%
Al Fallah 1+ goals
51%
Al Fallah 2+ goals
16%
Al Fallah 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
69%
Al Fallah (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alamal Atbara at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Al Fallah away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.35 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alamal Atbara attack 1.08 + Al Fallah defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

Al Fallah attack 0.55 + Alamal Atbara defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alamal Atbara scores more
48%
level
30%
Al Fallah scores more
22%

Alamal Atbara at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Alamal Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alamal Atbara vs Al Fallah

Alamal Atbara beat Al Fallah 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on October 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.