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Alamal Atbara vs Al Ahli Khartoum — Sudani Premier League 2019

Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
FT
1 – 0
Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
2/6/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 18Stade Al-Amal Atbara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Alamal Atbara43%
×Draw31%
Al Ahli Khartoum26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alamal Atbara
1.12
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.80

Alamal Atbara creates 40% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 81 away

creates per match

Alamal Atbara
1.08
Al Ahli Khartoum
0.73

allows per match

Alamal Atbara
0.87
Al Ahli Khartoum
1.16

finishing

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par
Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alamal Atbara ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Alamal Atbara or draw
74%
Alamal Atbara or Al Ahli Khartoum
69%
Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum
57%

Winning margin

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
18%
Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
67%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
31%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
10%
Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
55%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
19%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
62%
Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alamal Atbara at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alamal Atbara attack 1.08 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 0.73 + Alamal Atbara defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alamal Atbara scores more
43%
level
31%
Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
26%

Alamal Atbara at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alamal Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alamal Atbara vs Al Ahli Khartoum

Alamal Atbara beat Al Ahli Khartoum 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 6, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Al-Amal Atbara in Atbara.