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Al Zawra'a vs Naft Al-Wasat — Iraqi League 2020

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Al-Wasat
Naft Al-Wasat
6/25/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 33Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Al Zawra'a48%
×Draw29%
Naft Al-Wasat24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
1.30
Naft Al-Wasat
0.83

Al Zawra'a creates 57% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 73 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.45
Naft Al-Wasat
0.96

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
0.71
Naft Al-Wasat
1.16

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Naft Al-Wasat+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Naft Al-Wasat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
76%
Al Zawra'a or Naft Al-Wasat
71%
Draw or Naft Al-Wasat
52%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
22%
Naft Al-Wasat wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
73%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
37%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
14%
Naft Al-Wasat 1+ goals
56%
Naft Al-Wasat 2+ goals
20%
Naft Al-Wasat 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
67%
Naft Al-Wasat (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Naft Al-Wasat away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.45 + Naft Al-Wasat defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Naft Al-Wasat attack 0.96 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
48%
level
29%
Naft Al-Wasat scores more
24%

Al Zawra'a at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Zawra'a vs Naft Al-Wasat

Al Zawra'a and Naft Al-Wasat drew 1-1 in Iraqi League on June 25, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.