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Al Zawra'a vs Erbil — Iraqi League 2020

Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Erbil
Erbil
5/19/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 29Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Al Zawra'a47%
×Draw28%
Erbil25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Zawra'a
1.37
Erbil
0.91

Al Zawra'a creates 51% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 110 away

creates per match

Al Zawra'a
1.45
Erbil
1.11

allows per match

Al Zawra'a
0.71
Erbil
1.29

finishing

Al Zawra'a+0.00on par
Erbil+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Zawra'a ↓

Erbil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Zawra'a or draw
75%
Al Zawra'a or Erbil
72%
Draw or Erbil
53%

Winning margin

Al Zawra'a wins by 2+
23%
Erbil wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Zawra'a 1+ goals
75%
Al Zawra'a 2+ goals
40%
Al Zawra'a 3+ goals
16%
Erbil 1+ goals
60%
Erbil 2+ goals
23%
Erbil 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Zawra'a (draw refunded)
66%
Erbil (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Zawra'a at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.71 · 112 matches

Erbil away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.29 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Zawra'a attack 1.45 + Erbil defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.37

Erbil attack 1.11 + Al Zawra'a defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Zawra'a scores more
47%
level
28%
Erbil scores more
25%

Al Zawra'a at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Zawra'a will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Zawra'a 3–1 Erbil

Al Zawra'a beat Erbil 3-1 in Iraqi League on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.