Al Wehda Club 4–1 Al-Ittihad FC: Result & Stats

Al Wehda Club

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Al-Ittihad FC

3/11/2019

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 2Al Nahyan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Wehda Club46%

×Draw21%

Al-Ittihad FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Wehda ClubExpected goals in this matchAl-Ittihad FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.87

Al Wehda Club

2.19

Al-Ittihad FC

1.87

Al Wehda Club creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

2.71

creates per match

1.60

2.14

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Al Wehda Club

2.71

Al-Ittihad FC

1.60

allows per match

Al Wehda Club

2.14

Al-Ittihad FC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Wehda Club+0.00on par

Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wehda Club ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Al Wehda Club or draw

66%

Al Wehda Club or Al-Ittihad FC

79%

Draw or Al-Ittihad FC

54%

Winning margin

Al Wehda Club wins by 2+

26%

Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Al Wehda Club 1+ goals

89%

Al Wehda Club 2+ goals

64%

Al Wehda Club 3+ goals

37%

Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals

85%

Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals

56%

Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Al Wehda Club (draw refunded)

58%

Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wehda Club at home — creates 2.71, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wehda Club attack 2.71 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.19

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.60 + Al Wehda Club defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Wehda Club scores more

46%

level

21%

Al-Ittihad FC scores more

34%

Al Wehda Club at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Wehda Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff