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Al Talaba vs Baghdad — Iraqi League 2020

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Baghdad
Baghdad
3/9/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 23Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Al Talaba46%
×Draw28%
Baghdad26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.35
Baghdad
0.93

Al Talaba creates 45% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 78 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.25
Baghdad
0.91

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.95
Baghdad
1.46

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Baghdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
74%
Al Talaba or Baghdad
72%
Draw or Baghdad
54%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
22%
Baghdad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
74%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
39%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
15%
Baghdad 1+ goals
61%
Baghdad 2+ goals
24%
Baghdad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
64%
Baghdad (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.95 · 112 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.46 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.25 + Baghdad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Baghdad attack 0.91 + Al Talaba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Talaba scores more
46%
level
28%
Baghdad scores more
26%

Al Talaba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Talaba 1–2 Baghdad

Baghdad beat Al Talaba 2-1 in Iraqi League on March 9, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.