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Al Talaba vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2020

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
4/30/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 26Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Al Talaba28%
×Draw27%
Al Shorta44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.02
Al Shorta
1.35

Al Shorta creates 32% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 109 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.25
Al Shorta
1.76

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.95
Al Shorta
0.79

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
56%
Al Talaba or Al Shorta
73%
Draw or Al Shorta
72%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
11%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
64%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
27%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
8%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
74%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
39%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
39%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.95 · 112 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.25 + Al Shorta defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Al Shorta attack 1.76 + Al Talaba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Talaba scores more
28%
level
27%
Al Shorta scores more
44%

Al Shorta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Talaba vs Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Al Talaba 3-0 in Iraqi League on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.