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Al Talaba vs Al Karkh — Iraqi League 2020

Al Talaba
Al Talaba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Karkh
Al Karkh
Mahdi Kamil 0 45+10'
10/28/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 1Al-Zawraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Al Talaba40%
×Draw29%
Al Karkh31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Talaba
1.16
Al Karkh
0.98

Al Talaba creates 18% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 108 away

creates per match

Al Talaba
1.25
Al Karkh
1.02

allows per match

Al Talaba
0.95
Al Karkh
1.07

finishing

Al Talaba+0.00on par
Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Talaba ↓

Al Karkh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Talaba or draw
69%
Al Talaba or Al Karkh
71%
Draw or Al Karkh
60%

Winning margin

Al Talaba wins by 2+
17%
Al Karkh wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Talaba 1+ goals
69%
Al Talaba 2+ goals
32%
Al Talaba 3+ goals
11%
Al Karkh 1+ goals
62%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
26%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Talaba (draw refunded)
56%
Al Karkh (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Talaba at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.95 · 112 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Talaba attack 1.25 + Al Karkh defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al Karkh attack 1.02 + Al Talaba defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Talaba scores more
40%
level
29%
Al Karkh scores more
31%

Al Talaba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Talaba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
H. Hassan Amoyed Rasetim
45+10'
Mahdi Kamil 0

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Talaba 1 – 0 Al Karkh

Al Talaba beat Al Karkh 1-0 in Iraqi League on October 28, 2023.

Goals: Mahdi Kamil 0 (45+10').

The match was played at Al-Zawraa Stadium in Bagdad.