Al Taee 3–1 Al-Faisaly FC: Result & Stats

Al Taee

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Faisaly FC

12/26/2021

Pro League · Round 14Prince Abdul Aziz bin Musa'ed Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Al Taee42%

×Draw25%

Al-Faisaly FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al TaeeExpected goals in this matchAl-Faisaly FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.31

Al Taee

1.50

Al-Faisaly FC

1.31

Al Taee creates 15% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 60 away

1.47

creates per match

1.12

1.49

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Al Taee

1.47

Al-Faisaly FC

1.12

allows per match

Al Taee

1.49

Al-Faisaly FC

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Taee+0.00on par

Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taee ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Al Taee or draw

67%

Al Taee or Al-Faisaly FC

75%

Draw or Al-Faisaly FC

58%

Winning margin

Al Taee wins by 2+

20%

Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Taee 1+ goals

78%

Al Taee 2+ goals

44%

Al Taee 3+ goals

19%

Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals

73%

Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals

38%

Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al Taee (draw refunded)

56%

Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taee at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.49 · 47 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taee attack 1.47 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.12 + Al Taee defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Taee scores more

42%

level

25%

Al-Faisaly FC scores more

33%

Al Taee at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Taee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff