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Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha — Pro League 2018

Al Taawon
Al Taawon
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Al-Fayha
Al-Fayha
12/8/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 16Al Taawon Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al Taawon50%
×Draw25%
Al-Fayha26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taawon
1.63
Al-Fayha
1.10

Al Taawon creates 48% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 111 away

creates per match

Al Taawon
1.63
Al-Fayha
0.96

allows per match

Al Taawon
1.24
Al-Fayha
1.63

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par
Al-Fayha+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Al-Fayha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw
74%
Al Taawon or Al-Fayha
75%
Draw or Al-Fayha
50%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+
26%
Al-Fayha wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals
80%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
48%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
22%
Al-Fayha 1+ goals
67%
Al-Fayha 2+ goals
30%
Al-Fayha 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)
66%
Al-Fayha (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 126 matches

Al-Fayha away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.63 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.63 + Al-Fayha defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.63

Al-Fayha attack 0.96 + Al Taawon defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Taawon scores more
50%
level
25%
Al-Fayha scores more
26%

Al Taawon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taawon vs Al-Fayha

Al Taawon beat Al-Fayha 4-1 in Pro League on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Al Taawon Club Stadium in Buraidah.