Al Suwaiq 0–2 Bahla: Result & Stats

Al Suwaiq

FT

0 – 2

Bahla

11/1/2020

Professional League · Round 26AL Rustaq Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Al Suwaiq41%

×Draw30%

Bahla29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SuwaiqExpected goals in this matchBahla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.90

Al Suwaiq

1.12

Bahla

0.90

Al Suwaiq creates 24% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 80 away

1.13

creates per match

1.02

0.78

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Al Suwaiq

1.13

Bahla

1.02

allows per match

Al Suwaiq

0.78

Bahla

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Suwaiq+0.00on par

Bahla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Suwaiq ↓

Bahla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Suwaiq or draw

71%

Al Suwaiq or Bahla

70%

Draw or Bahla

59%

Winning margin

Al Suwaiq wins by 2+

17%

Bahla wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Suwaiq 1+ goals

67%

Al Suwaiq 2+ goals

31%

Al Suwaiq 3+ goals

10%

Bahla 1+ goals

59%

Bahla 2+ goals

23%

Bahla 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Al Suwaiq (draw refunded)

58%

Bahla (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Suwaiq at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Bahla away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Suwaiq attack 1.13 + Bahla defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Bahla attack 1.02 + Al Suwaiq defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Suwaiq scores more

41%

level

30%

Bahla scores more

29%

Al Suwaiq at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Suwaiq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff