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Al Shorta vs Merreikh El-Fasher — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
4 – 2
Merreikh El-Fasher
Merreikh El-Fasher
12/17/2018Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 4Al-Gadarf Stadium (Al-Gadarf)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Al Shorta42%
×Draw31%
Merreikh El-Fasher27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.10
Merreikh El-Fasher
0.83

Al Shorta creates 33% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.01
Merreikh El-Fasher
0.69

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.97
Merreikh El-Fasher
1.20

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Merreikh El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Merreikh El-Fasher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
73%
Al Shorta or Merreikh El-Fasher
69%
Draw or Merreikh El-Fasher
58%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
17%
Merreikh El-Fasher wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
67%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
30%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
10%
Merreikh El-Fasher 1+ goals
56%
Merreikh El-Fasher 2+ goals
20%
Merreikh El-Fasher 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
60%
Merreikh El-Fasher (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Merreikh El-Fasher away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.01 + Merreikh El-Fasher defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Merreikh El-Fasher attack 0.69 + Al Shorta defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Shorta scores more
42%
level
31%
Merreikh El-Fasher scores more
27%

Al Shorta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Shorta 4–2 Merreikh El-Fasher

Al Shorta beat Merreikh El-Fasher 4-2 in Sudani Premier League on December 17, 2018.

The match was played at Al-Gadarf Stadium (Al-Gadarf).