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Al Shorta vs Duhok — Iraqi League 2020

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Duhok
Duhok
3/11/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 20Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Al Shorta52%
×Draw26%
Duhok22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.50
Duhok
0.86

Al Shorta creates 74% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 77 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.84
Duhok
1.05

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.68
Duhok
1.16

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Duhok+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Duhok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
78%
Al Shorta or Duhok
74%
Draw or Duhok
48%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
27%
Duhok wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
78%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
44%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
19%
Duhok 1+ goals
58%
Duhok 2+ goals
21%
Duhok 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
71%
Duhok (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.68 · 111 matches

Duhok away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.16 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.84 + Duhok defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.50

Duhok attack 1.05 + Al Shorta defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Shorta scores more
52%
level
26%
Duhok scores more
22%

Al Shorta at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Shorta 1–0 Duhok

Al Shorta beat Duhok 1-0 in Iraqi League on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.