Al Shorta vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya — Iraqi League 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 109+ matches
Al Shorta43%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Al Shorta creates 27% more chances
Season form · 111 home / 109 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Al Shorta ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Al Shorta at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.68 · 111 matches
Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Al Shorta attack 1.84 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.31
Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.39 + Al Shorta defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.03
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Al Shorta at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
NaftAl Quwa Al Jawiya
Naft Al-Wasat
Al Najaf
Al Zawra'a
Al Talaba
Al Minaa Basra
Al Hudod
Erbil
Alsinaat Al KahrabaiyaAl Shorta
Naft Al-Janoob
Baghdad
Al Kahrabaa
Naft MaysanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Al Shorta host Al Quwa Al Jawiya on Friday, 5 May 2023 at 18:30. The match is part of the Iraqi League 2020/2021 season.
Iraqi League: Al Shorta 0–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Shorta and Al Quwa Al Jawiya drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on May 5, 2023.
The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.