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Al Shabab vs Dhamk — Pro League 2018

Al Shabab
Al Shabab
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Dhamk
Dhamk
2/20/2020Pro LeaguePro League · Round 19Prince Khalid Bin Sultan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al Shabab53%
×Draw23%
Dhamk24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shabab
1.79
Dhamk
1.11

Al Shabab creates 61% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 111 away

creates per match

Al Shabab
1.79
Dhamk
1.06

allows per match

Al Shabab
1.16
Dhamk
1.80

finishing

Al Shabab+0.00on par
Dhamk+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shabab ↓

Dhamk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Shabab or draw
76%
Al Shabab or Dhamk
77%
Draw or Dhamk
47%

Winning margin

Al Shabab wins by 2+
30%
Dhamk wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Shabab 1+ goals
83%
Al Shabab 2+ goals
53%
Al Shabab 3+ goals
26%
Dhamk 1+ goals
67%
Dhamk 2+ goals
30%
Dhamk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al Shabab (draw refunded)
69%
Dhamk (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shabab at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.16 · 126 matches

Dhamk away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.80 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shabab attack 1.79 + Dhamk defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Dhamk attack 1.06 + Al Shabab defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Shabab scores more
53%
level
23%
Dhamk scores more
24%

Al Shabab at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Shabab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al Shabab 3–2 Dhamk

Al Shabab beat Dhamk 3-2 in Pro League on February 20, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Khalid Bin Sultan Stadium in Riyadh.