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Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC — Pro League 2018

Al Shabab
Al Shabab
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al-Ittihad FC
Al-Ittihad FC
11/3/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 12King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Al Shabab40%
×Draw25%
Al-Ittihad FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shabab
1.52
Al-Ittihad FC
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 126 away

creates per match

Al Shabab
1.78
Al-Ittihad FC
1.72

allows per match

Al Shabab
1.17
Al-Ittihad FC
1.25

finishing

Al Shabab+0.00on par
Al-Ittihad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shabab ↓

Al-Ittihad FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Shabab or draw
64%
Al Shabab or Al-Ittihad FC
75%
Draw or Al-Ittihad FC
60%

Winning margin

Al Shabab wins by 2+
19%
Al-Ittihad FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Shabab 1+ goals
78%
Al Shabab 2+ goals
45%
Al Shabab 3+ goals
20%
Al-Ittihad FC 1+ goals
76%
Al-Ittihad FC 2+ goals
42%
Al-Ittihad FC 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Al Shabab (draw refunded)
52%
Al-Ittihad FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shabab at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Al-Ittihad FC away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shabab attack 1.78 + Al-Ittihad FC defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.72 + Al Shabab defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Shabab scores more
40%
level
25%
Al-Ittihad FC scores more
36%

Al Shabab at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Shabab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shabab vs Al-Ittihad FC

Al Shabab beat Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 in Pro League on November 3, 2023.

The match was played at King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh.