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Al Salmiyah vs Al Fahaheel — Premier League 2019

Al Salmiyah
Al Salmiyah
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Fahaheel
Al Fahaheel
12/6/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Thamir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Al Salmiyah47%
×Draw24%
Al Fahaheel30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Salmiyah
1.72
Al Fahaheel
1.32

Al Salmiyah creates 30% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 75 away

creates per match

Al Salmiyah
1.68
Al Fahaheel
1.28

allows per match

Al Salmiyah
1.36
Al Fahaheel
1.76

finishing

Al Salmiyah+0.00on par
Al Fahaheel+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Salmiyah ↓

Al Fahaheel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Salmiyah or draw
70%
Al Salmiyah or Al Fahaheel
76%
Draw or Al Fahaheel
53%

Winning margin

Al Salmiyah wins by 2+
25%
Al Fahaheel wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Salmiyah 1+ goals
82%
Al Salmiyah 2+ goals
51%
Al Salmiyah 3+ goals
25%
Al Fahaheel 1+ goals
73%
Al Fahaheel 2+ goals
38%
Al Fahaheel 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Salmiyah (draw refunded)
61%
Al Fahaheel (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Salmiyah at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.36 · 84 matches

Al Fahaheel away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.76 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Salmiyah attack 1.68 + Al Fahaheel defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.72

Al Fahaheel attack 1.28 + Al Salmiyah defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Salmiyah scores more
47%
level
24%
Al Fahaheel scores more
30%

Al Salmiyah at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Salmiyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Salmiyah 0–0 Al Fahaheel

Al Salmiyah and Al Fahaheel drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Thamir Stadium in Kuwait City.