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Al Sahel vs Najran — Division 1 2018

Al Sahel
Al Sahel
FT
1 – 1
Najran
Najran
11/9/2020Division 1Division 1 · Round 4Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Al Sahel36%
×Draw28%
Najran36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sahel
1.17
Najran
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 77 away

creates per match

Al Sahel
1.11
Najran
1.10

allows per match

Al Sahel
1.24
Najran
1.23

finishing

Al Sahel+0.00on par
Najran+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sahel ↓

Najran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Sahel or draw
64%
Al Sahel or Najran
72%
Draw or Najran
64%

Winning margin

Al Sahel wins by 2+
15%
Najran wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Sahel 1+ goals
69%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
33%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
11%
Najran 1+ goals
69%
Najran 2+ goals
33%
Najran 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Sahel (draw refunded)
50%
Najran (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sahel at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.24 · 55 matches

Najran away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sahel attack 1.11 + Najran defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Najran attack 1.10 + Al Sahel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Sahel scores more
36%
level
28%
Najran scores more
36%

Al Sahel at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Sahel 1–1 Najran

Al Sahel and Najran drew 1-1 in Division 1 on November 9, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.