Al Sadd 1–4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC: Result & Stats

Al Sadd

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

10/1/2019

AFC Champions League · Semi-finalsJassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Al Sadd36%

×Draw24%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SaddExpected goals in this matchAl-Hilal Saudi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.60

Al Sadd

1.52

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 39 away

2.06

creates per match

2.05

1.15

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Al Sadd

2.06

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

2.05

allows per match

Al Sadd

1.15

Al-Hilal Saudi FC

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Sadd+0.00on par

Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadd ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al Sadd or draw

60%

Al Sadd or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

76%

Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC

64%

Winning margin

Al Sadd wins by 2+

17%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Al Sadd 1+ goals

78%

Al Sadd 2+ goals

45%

Al Sadd 3+ goals

20%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals

80%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals

47%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Al Sadd (draw refunded)

48%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadd at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadd attack 2.06 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.05 + Al Sadd defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Sadd scores more

36%

level

24%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more

40%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff