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Al Sadaqa vs Al-Tahaddi — Premier League 2019

Al Sadaqa
Al Sadaqa
FT
0 – 0
Al-Tahaddi
Al-Tahaddi
6/28/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Al Sadaqa45%
×Draw30%
Al-Tahaddi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sadaqa
1.19
Al-Tahaddi
0.82

Al Sadaqa creates 45% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

Al Sadaqa
1.24
Al-Tahaddi
0.64

allows per match

Al Sadaqa
1.00
Al-Tahaddi
1.14

finishing

Al Sadaqa+0.00on par
Al-Tahaddi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sadaqa ↓

Al-Tahaddi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Sadaqa or draw
75%
Al Sadaqa or Al-Tahaddi
70%
Draw or Al-Tahaddi
55%

Winning margin

Al Sadaqa wins by 2+
19%
Al-Tahaddi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al Sadaqa 1+ goals
70%
Al Sadaqa 2+ goals
33%
Al Sadaqa 3+ goals
12%
Al-Tahaddi 1+ goals
56%
Al-Tahaddi 2+ goals
20%
Al-Tahaddi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Sadaqa (draw refunded)
64%
Al-Tahaddi (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sadaqa at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.00 · 58 matches

Al-Tahaddi away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sadaqa attack 1.24 + Al-Tahaddi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Al-Tahaddi attack 0.64 + Al Sadaqa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Sadaqa scores more
45%
level
30%
Al-Tahaddi scores more
25%

Al Sadaqa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Sadaqa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Sadaqa vs Al-Tahaddi

Al Sadaqa and Al-Tahaddi drew 0-0 in Premier League on June 28, 2021.