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Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2020

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
11/23/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 5Al Kut Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya37%
×Draw26%
Al Shorta37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.30
Al Shorta
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 111 home / 109 away

creates per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.81
Al Shorta
1.76

allows per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0.83
Al Shorta
0.79

finishing

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Quwa Al Jawiya ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw
63%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya or Al Shorta
74%
Draw or Al Shorta
63%

Winning margin

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
16%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
73%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
37%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
14%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
72%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
37%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
50%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.83 · 111 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.81 + Al Shorta defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.30

Al Shorta attack 1.76 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
37%
level
26%
Al Shorta scores more
37%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2–2 Al Shorta

Al Quwa Al Jawiya and Al Shorta drew 2-2 in Iraqi League on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at Al Kut Stadium in Al Kut.