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Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2020

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
2/10/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 13Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya55%
×Draw25%
Al Minaa Basra20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.60
Al Minaa Basra
0.84

Al Quwa Al Jawiya creates 90% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 93 away

creates per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1.81
Al Minaa Basra
0.86

allows per match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya
0.83
Al Minaa Basra
1.40

finishing

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Quwa Al Jawiya ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Quwa Al Jawiya or draw
80%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya or Al Minaa Basra
75%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
45%

Winning margin

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+
30%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals
80%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals
47%
Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals
22%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
57%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
21%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)
74%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.83 · 111 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 1.81 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.60

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more
55%
level
25%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
20%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Quwa Al Jawiya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 4–2 Al Minaa Basra

Al Quwa Al Jawiya beat Al Minaa Basra 4-2 in Iraqi League on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.