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Al Qadsia vs Al Salmiyah — Premier League 2019

Al Qadsia
Al Qadsia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Salmiyah
Al Salmiyah
11/26/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Mohammed Al-Hammad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Al Qadsia45%
×Draw24%
Al Salmiyah31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Qadsia
1.67
Al Salmiyah
1.34

Al Qadsia creates 25% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 86 away

creates per match

Al Qadsia
1.82
Al Salmiyah
1.52

allows per match

Al Qadsia
1.16
Al Salmiyah
1.51

finishing

Al Qadsia+0.00on par
Al Salmiyah+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Qadsia ↓

Al Salmiyah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Qadsia or draw
69%
Al Qadsia or Al Salmiyah
76%
Draw or Al Salmiyah
55%

Winning margin

Al Qadsia wins by 2+
24%
Al Salmiyah wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Al Qadsia 1+ goals
81%
Al Qadsia 2+ goals
50%
Al Qadsia 3+ goals
23%
Al Salmiyah 1+ goals
74%
Al Salmiyah 2+ goals
39%
Al Salmiyah 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Qadsia (draw refunded)
59%
Al Salmiyah (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Qadsia at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.16 · 85 matches

Al Salmiyah away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.51 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Qadsia attack 1.82 + Al Salmiyah defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.67

Al Salmiyah attack 1.52 + Al Qadsia defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Qadsia scores more
45%
level
24%
Al Salmiyah scores more
31%

Al Qadsia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Qadsia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Qadsia 1–1 Al Salmiyah

Al Qadsia and Al Salmiyah drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Mohammed Al-Hammad Stadium in Kuwait City.