Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Ohod — Pro League 2018

Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Ohod
Ohod
4/5/2019Pro LeaguePro League · Round 26Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Al-Qadisiyah FC68%
×Draw19%
Ohod13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qadisiyah FC
2.16
Ohod
0.83

Al-Qadisiyah FC creates 160% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

creates per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.72
Ohod
0.60

allows per match

Al-Qadisiyah FC
1.06
Ohod
2.60

finishing

Al-Qadisiyah FC+0.00on par
Ohod+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qadisiyah FC ↓

Ohod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al-Qadisiyah FC or draw
87%
Al-Qadisiyah FC or Ohod
81%
Draw or Ohod
32%

Winning margin

Al-Qadisiyah FC wins by 2+
43%
Ohod wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al-Qadisiyah FC 1+ goals
88%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 2+ goals
63%
Al-Qadisiyah FC 3+ goals
36%
Ohod 1+ goals
56%
Ohod 2+ goals
20%
Ohod 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al-Qadisiyah FC (draw refunded)
84%
Ohod (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qadisiyah FC at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.06 · 64 matches

Ohod away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.72 + Ohod defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.16

Ohod attack 0.60 + Al-Qadisiyah FC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Al-Qadisiyah FC scores more
68%
level
19%
Ohod scores more
13%

Al-Qadisiyah FC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Al-Qadisiyah FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Ohod

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Ohod 4-2 in Pro League on April 5, 2019.

The match was played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Khobar.