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Al Nejmeh vs Al Ansar — Premier League 2019

Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Al Ansar
Al Ansar
12/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Al Nejmeh31%
×Draw25%
Al Ansar44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nejmeh
1.25
Al Ansar
1.53

Al Ansar creates 22% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 60 away

creates per match

Al Nejmeh
1.83
Al Ansar
2.23

allows per match

Al Nejmeh
0.83
Al Ansar
0.67

finishing

Al Nejmeh+0.00on par
Al Ansar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nejmeh ↓

Al Ansar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Al Nejmeh or draw
56%
Al Nejmeh or Al Ansar
75%
Draw or Al Ansar
69%

Winning margin

Al Nejmeh wins by 2+
13%
Al Ansar wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Nejmeh 1+ goals
71%
Al Nejmeh 2+ goals
36%
Al Nejmeh 3+ goals
13%
Al Ansar 1+ goals
78%
Al Ansar 2+ goals
45%
Al Ansar 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)
42%
Al Ansar (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nejmeh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

Al Ansar away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.67 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nejmeh attack 1.83 + Al Ansar defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Ansar attack 2.23 + Al Nejmeh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Nejmeh scores more
31%
level
25%
Al Ansar scores more
44%

Al Ansar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Ansar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Nejmeh vs Al Ansar

Al Ansar beat Al Nejmeh 5-1 in Premier League on December 8, 2023.

The match was played at Fouad Shehab Stadium in Jounie.