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Al Nejmeh vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli — Premier League 2019

Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
11/7/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al Nejmeh58%
×Draw25%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nejmeh
1.62
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.76

Al Nejmeh creates 113% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 29 away

creates per match

Al Nejmeh
1.83
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
0.69

allows per match

Al Nejmeh
0.83
Al Akhaa Al Ahli
1.41

finishing

Al Nejmeh+0.00on par
Al Akhaa Al Ahli+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nejmeh ↓

Al Akhaa Al Ahli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Nejmeh or draw
83%
Al Nejmeh or Al Akhaa Al Ahli
75%
Draw or Al Akhaa Al Ahli
42%

Winning margin

Al Nejmeh wins by 2+
31%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Nejmeh 1+ goals
80%
Al Nejmeh 2+ goals
48%
Al Nejmeh 3+ goals
22%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 1+ goals
53%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 2+ goals
18%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)
77%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nejmeh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

Al Akhaa Al Ahli away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nejmeh attack 1.83 + Al Akhaa Al Ahli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.62

Al Akhaa Al Ahli attack 0.69 + Al Nejmeh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Nejmeh scores more
58%
level
25%
Al Akhaa Al Ahli scores more
17%

Al Nejmeh at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Nejmeh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Nejmeh vs Al Akhaa Al Ahli

Al Nejmeh and Al Akhaa Al Ahli drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 7, 2020.

The match was played at Fouad Shehab Stadium in Jounie.