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Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed — Premier League 2019

Al Nejmeh
Al Nejmeh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Ahed
Al Ahed
3/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Championship Round - 4Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Al Nejmeh36%
×Draw26%
Al Ahed38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nejmeh
1.33
Al Ahed
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 76 away

creates per match

Al Nejmeh
1.83
Al Ahed
1.93

allows per match

Al Nejmeh
0.83
Al Ahed
0.84

finishing

Al Nejmeh+0.00on par
Al Ahed+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nejmeh ↓

Al Ahed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Nejmeh or draw
62%
Al Nejmeh or Al Ahed
74%
Draw or Al Ahed
64%

Winning margin

Al Nejmeh wins by 2+
16%
Al Ahed wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Nejmeh 1+ goals
74%
Al Nejmeh 2+ goals
38%
Al Nejmeh 3+ goals
15%
Al Ahed 1+ goals
75%
Al Ahed 2+ goals
40%
Al Ahed 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al Nejmeh (draw refunded)
48%
Al Ahed (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nejmeh at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 65 matches

Al Ahed away — creates 1.93, concedes 0.84 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nejmeh attack 1.83 + Al Ahed defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.33

Al Ahed attack 1.93 + Al Nejmeh defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Nejmeh scores more
36%
level
26%
Al Ahed scores more
38%

Al Ahed at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Ahed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Nejmeh vs Al Ahed

Al Nejmeh and Al Ahed drew 1-1 in Premier League on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Fouad Shehab Stadium in Jounie.