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Al-Nassr vs Al Khaleej Saihat — Pro League 2018

Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat
11/4/2023Pro LeaguePro League · Round 12Al Awal Park at King Saud University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Al-Nassr58%
×Draw22%
Al Khaleej Saihat20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nassr
1.98
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.08

Al-Nassr creates 83% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 66 away

creates per match

Al-Nassr
2.37
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.11

allows per match

Al-Nassr
1.06
Al Khaleej Saihat
1.59

finishing

Al-Nassr+0.00on par
Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nassr ↓

Al Khaleej Saihat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al-Nassr or draw
80%
Al-Nassr or Al Khaleej Saihat
78%
Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat
42%

Winning margin

Al-Nassr wins by 2+
35%
Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al-Nassr 1+ goals
86%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
59%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
31%
Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals
66%
Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals
29%
Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
74%
Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nassr at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.06 · 126 matches

Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nassr attack 2.37 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.98

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.11 + Al-Nassr defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al-Nassr scores more
58%
level
22%
Al Khaleej Saihat scores more
20%

Al-Nassr at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Nassr 2–0 Al Khaleej Saihat

Al-Nassr beat Al Khaleej Saihat 2-0 in Pro League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University in Riyadh.