Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al-Nasr vs Al Sadaqa — Premier League 2019

Al-Nasr
Al-Nasr
FT
1 – 0
Al Sadaqa
Al Sadaqa
7/18/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Al-Nasr57%
×Draw27%
Al Sadaqa17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Nasr
1.47
Al Sadaqa
0.66

Al-Nasr creates 123% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 58 away

creates per match

Al-Nasr
1.65
Al Sadaqa
0.66

allows per match

Al-Nasr
0.65
Al Sadaqa
1.29

finishing

Al-Nasr+0.00on par
Al Sadaqa+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nasr ↓

Al Sadaqa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al-Nasr or draw
83%
Al-Nasr or Al Sadaqa
73%
Draw or Al Sadaqa
43%

Winning margin

Al-Nasr wins by 2+
29%
Al Sadaqa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Al-Nasr 1+ goals
77%
Al-Nasr 2+ goals
43%
Al-Nasr 3+ goals
18%
Al Sadaqa 1+ goals
48%
Al Sadaqa 2+ goals
14%
Al Sadaqa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al-Nasr (draw refunded)
77%
Al Sadaqa (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nasr at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 68 matches

Al Sadaqa away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nasr attack 1.65 + Al Sadaqa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.47

Al Sadaqa attack 0.66 + Al-Nasr defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al-Nasr scores more
57%
level
27%
Al Sadaqa scores more
17%

Al-Nasr at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al-Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Nasr vs Al Sadaqa

Al-Nasr beat Al Sadaqa 1-0 in Premier League on July 18, 2021.