Al-Nasr 2–1 Al-Akhdar: Result & Stats

Al-Nasr

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Al-Akhdar

5/7/2023

Premier League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Al-Nasr42%

×Draw27%

Al-Akhdar31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-NasrExpected goals in this matchAl-Akhdar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.10

Al-Nasr

1.32

Al-Akhdar

1.10

Al-Nasr creates 20% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 64 away

1.65

creates per match

1.55

0.65

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Al-Nasr

1.65

Al-Akhdar

1.55

allows per match

Al-Nasr

0.65

Al-Akhdar

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Nasr+0.00on par

Al-Akhdar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Nasr ↓

Al-Akhdar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al-Nasr or draw

69%

Al-Nasr or Al-Akhdar

73%

Draw or Al-Akhdar

58%

Winning margin

Al-Nasr wins by 2+

19%

Al-Akhdar wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al-Nasr 1+ goals

73%

Al-Nasr 2+ goals

38%

Al-Nasr 3+ goals

15%

Al-Akhdar 1+ goals

67%

Al-Akhdar 2+ goals

30%

Al-Akhdar 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al-Nasr (draw refunded)

57%

Al-Akhdar (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Nasr at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.65 · 68 matches

Al-Akhdar away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Nasr attack 1.65 + Al-Akhdar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al-Akhdar attack 1.55 + Al-Nasr defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al-Nasr scores more

42%

level

27%

Al-Akhdar scores more

31%

Al-Nasr at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al-Nasr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff