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Al Nasar vs Al Kuwait — Premier League 2019

Al Nasar
Al Nasar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Kuwait
Al Kuwait
3/8/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Al Nasar25%
×Draw23%
Al Kuwait52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nasar
1.17
Al Kuwait
1.81

Al Kuwait creates 55% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 82 away

creates per match

Al Nasar
1.38
Al Kuwait
2.16

allows per match

Al Nasar
1.47
Al Kuwait
0.95

finishing

Al Nasar+0.00on par
Al Kuwait+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nasar ↓

Al Kuwait →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Nasar or draw
48%
Al Nasar or Al Kuwait
77%
Draw or Al Kuwait
75%

Winning margin

Al Nasar wins by 2+
10%
Al Kuwait wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Al Nasar 1+ goals
69%
Al Nasar 2+ goals
33%
Al Nasar 3+ goals
11%
Al Kuwait 1+ goals
84%
Al Kuwait 2+ goals
54%
Al Kuwait 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Al Nasar (draw refunded)
32%
Al Kuwait (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nasar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.47 · 78 matches

Al Kuwait away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nasar attack 1.38 + Al Kuwait defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Al Kuwait attack 2.16 + Al Nasar defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Nasar scores more
25%
level
23%
Al Kuwait scores more
52%

Al Kuwait at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Kuwait will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Nasar vs Al Kuwait

Al Kuwait beat Al Nasar 2-0 in Premier League on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah Stadium in Ardiyah.