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Al Nasar vs Al Fahaheel — Premier League 2019

Al Nasar
Al Nasar
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Al Fahaheel
Al Fahaheel
2/11/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Al Nasar42%
×Draw24%
Al Fahaheel34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Nasar
1.57
Al Fahaheel
1.38

Al Nasar creates 14% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 75 away

creates per match

Al Nasar
1.38
Al Fahaheel
1.28

allows per match

Al Nasar
1.47
Al Fahaheel
1.76

finishing

Al Nasar+0.00on par
Al Fahaheel+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Nasar ↓

Al Fahaheel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Al Nasar or draw
66%
Al Nasar or Al Fahaheel
76%
Draw or Al Fahaheel
58%

Winning margin

Al Nasar wins by 2+
21%
Al Fahaheel wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Nasar 1+ goals
79%
Al Nasar 2+ goals
46%
Al Nasar 3+ goals
21%
Al Fahaheel 1+ goals
75%
Al Fahaheel 2+ goals
40%
Al Fahaheel 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al Nasar (draw refunded)
56%
Al Fahaheel (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Nasar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.47 · 78 matches

Al Fahaheel away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.76 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Nasar attack 1.38 + Al Fahaheel defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

Al Fahaheel attack 1.28 + Al Nasar defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Nasar scores more
42%
level
24%
Al Fahaheel scores more
34%

Al Nasar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Nasar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Nasar 1–2 Al Fahaheel

Al Fahaheel beat Al Nasar 2-1 in Premier League on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah Stadium in Ardiyah.